SpaceX Stock Could Fall 25%, Wall Street Divided Over Capital Pressure

DZ Bank analyst Markus Leistner initiated coverage on SpaceX with a sell rating and a $100 price target — approximately 25% below the current stock price of $136.92.

Wall Street Remains Bullish Overall

75% of analysts covering SpaceX rate it a buy, with an average price target around $226. Leistner's call stands in stark contrast to the consensus — he also holds buy ratings on Tesla and Spotify.

The Core Issue: Cash Flow

Market projections call for SpaceX revenue of ~$44B in 2026, surpassing $100B in 2027, and exceeding $760B by 2030. But achieving these figures requires massive capital expenditure: Wall Street estimates cumulative capex will reach ~$800B by 2030, requiring SpaceX to raise hundreds of billions via debt and equity financing.

Most of that capital flows into AI infrastructure. A 1 GW compute facility costs approximately $50B to build. SpaceX currently operates at ~1.4 GW of compute capacity, plans to scale to 10 GW by end of 2027, and has a long-term target of several hundred GW.

Starship Disappointment

SpaceX shares fell 4.1% on Thursday following the unlock of 319 million shares held by insiders and early investors. Elon Musk also told investors that Starship's upper stage (the spacecraft portion) will not attempt a recovery for several months — a disappointment, as the market had anticipated a recovery attempt in August. Starship, SpaceX's large reusable rocket, is expected to dramatically reduce the cost of reaching orbit once operational, enabling applications like orbital AI data centers.

Shares closed the week down 4.3%, now trading near the IPO price of $135.